In this market about how many episodes of AXRP I'll publish in 2024, there's an 11% chance I'll publish less than 9, the number I have published so far. manifold.markets/DanielFilan/h…

(The motivation of the market was to test whether I'd succeed in publishing a ton - in fact, I've been down an editor for a bit which slowed me down, as did having a real job, but I still think I'll beat my all-time record of 10 episodes in 2022)