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Uehara Konen, Dōtonbori (1928)
Found here: https://x.com/marysia_cc/status/1842981647505101294


So presumably all young hippos look like that right? Are they just taking more photos of Moo Deng? or is Moo Deng simply more inquisitive than most?
in reply to Daniel Filan

Hmmm apparently Moo Deng is a pygmy hippopotamus - maybe those are cuter as infants?


New AXRP with Jaime Sevilla!


Epoch AI is the premier organization that tracks the trajectory of AI - how much compute is used, the role of algorithmic improvements, the growth in data used, and when the above trends might hit an end. In this episode, I speak with the director of Epoch AI, Jaime Sevilla, about how compute, data, and algorithmic improvements are impacting AI, and whether continuing to scale can get us AGI.

Transcript
YouTube link



I set up my own friendica instance for testing + potentially developing addons to propose to @Ben Weinstein-Raun . (Main experience: surprisingly large amounts of "this is broken, why doesn't it log anything anywhere?")

I've been away from PHP for a long time and had forgotten how normal it is that you put your code in all the folders that your webserver is configured to send to your clients, and you have to make some of the folders writable by the webserver or it won't work. I can kind of imagine lots of PHP-native people being like "sure, that makes sense" but it sounds so insane to me. How many security compromises would never have happened if someone early in PHP's development demanded better filesystem-level separation of code and data, and demanded that the places you could write to and the places you ran code from weren't the same places?

in reply to Ben Millwood

also @Ben Weinstein-Raun would you care if I packaged friendica for NixOS? I'm guessing no, but I've been enjoying packaging things recently so I thought I might as well ask (I think it's reasonably likely that I'll do it for myself, but if you care then I'll do it faster, and talk to you about what options would be useful etc.)
This entry was edited (7 months ago)
in reply to Ben Millwood

I probably wouldn't; this instance is running a copy of the official docker container and I think I won't want to switch to something else


The value of your time should include rest hours (and analogies from the world of work)


in reply to Amber Dawn

in reply to Amber Dawn

It's also worth pointing out that the questions of "what could I exchange for one more hour of work?" and "who should get moral credit for my ability to work one more hour?" are different questions, and arguably it's the first and not the second that you should use when deciding whether to take the bus or a cab or whatever. So, for example, the man supported by his wife may already receive enough support for him to work longer hours than he does, so while the wife is an important part of why he's able to work that much, she doesn't have to do any more work for him to work an additional hour, so he should value freeing up an extra hour without taking the cost of her work into account.

Similarly, if e.g. my commute experience is not restful, then maybe I think that all my rest supports the total time I spend commuting and working, and so I'm justified in spending up to my hourly work rate to reduce my commute.

This entry was edited (7 months ago)


I just invited some FB friends here, let's see if anyone shows up


cribs should not tell me about my baby suffocating


Irrationally annoyed at the bit of US law which mandates that cribs have warnings printed on them about babies suffocating. I do not wish to read about babies suffocating every time I put my child to bed. A removable tag, fine; printing it on the crib itself, not fine.

Anyway I fixed it.

in reply to Kevin Gibbons

Agree that's so macabre! A good example of people being insensitive to like... adding low-level bad experiences to people's lives? (In this case, admittedly aiming to avoid the extremely bad experience of a baby suffocating).


RSP overhang


A complaint about AI pause: if we pause AI and then unpause, progress will then be really quick, because there's a backlog of improvements in compute and algorithmic efficiency that can be immediately applied.

One definition of what an RSP is: if a lab makes observation O, then they pause scaling until they implement protection P.

Doesn't this sort of RSP have the same problem with fast progress after pausing? Why have I never heard anyone make this complaint about RSPs? Possibilities:
- They do and I just haven't seen it
- People expect "AI pause" to produce longer / more serious pauses than RSPs (but this seems incidental to the core structure of RSPs)

Crossposted from LessWrong

in reply to Daniel Filan

The number of people who read this post on LW and thought "But there are reasons to think that RSPs are better than pauses" was a relevant response is kind of depressing tbh.


Oh nice, I figured out how to enable embedded videos. So here's the cool drone video but you don't have to click a link:



William Morris (24 March 1834 – 3 October 1896)
Acanthus original design

(Taken from @ marysia_cc on twitter, https://x.com/marysia_cc/status/1841750032535765407)




From Twitter account Le monde sensible, who captioned it "Au file de mes idées / In line with my ideas"
https://x.com/Philippe4269/status/1841365949720474004


in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

The gun violence thing is a bit of a weird case, since republicans are on team "guns aren't the problem", so they have to point to other things that are the problem. Traditionally this might have been things like "law enforcement is handicapped; punishments aren't severe enough, ..."; but when those aren't as popular they reach for the mental health thing as a different scapegoat.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

(tbc this is all about the last tangential question and not the meat of your post; also it's all maybe kind of obvious and doesn't really answer your question; whoops)



Cover art of a book I own about the Jesuits. I think it works very well. That said, the book itself didn't hold my attention.


Notes on superstimulus


  • It's very small, and most people who I would want to talk to aren't here
  • I don't find it that rewarding to check because I don't see that much stuff.
  • That said, I do like it
    • I think it's because I feel some obligation to post minimally thoughtful things here. Where on FB / twitter / my personal slack channel, I just post whatever's on my mind.
    • This would be a bad omen if true
    • That said, it's possible that's because there's a decent quality of people here, and/or 2014-era FB was an unusually good architecture for hosting discussions.


in reply to Daniel Filan

I guess one thing about few people being on here is that this feels sort of disconnected from 'real life' such that I tend to say different things here than I would say elsewhere.
in reply to Daniel Filan

My one complaint about my posting is that I could be having more nice pictures.


Sometimes people say that you can't really have law under anarchy. But, inspired by a recent episode of Divided Argument (dividedargument.com/episodes/s…), I think American constitutional law is a counterexample.

Constitutional law looks and acts like law that constrains the federal and state governments. But there isn't a super-government that rules over the federal government that constitutional law appeals to, where if the federal government disobeyed rulings the super-government would punish them. Instead, courts rule on constitutional law, and the federal government follows, probably because the individual humans who work for the government by and large think that's the best for them in the long run.

This doesn't prove that law for humans could work without a state. There are way more humans than there are governments, so even a small rate of people ignoring courts is quite bad (where a small rate of governments ignoring courts is tolerable). And of course there are a bunch of other disanalogies. But it does indicate that stateless law is a conceivable thing.



Notes from my dental appointment:
1. apparently I have recessed gums, and they recommend I get a scaling and root planing procedure, which is pretty expensive
2. apparently my tongue is big enough that there's a good chance I have (undiagnosed and asymptomatic) obstructive sleep apnea

Anyone have opinions about how seriously I should take this? For 1, I have a general sense that dentists sometimes upsell people, and for 2, I don't know if undiagnosed sleep apnea is actually a big deal (or what the cost/benefit of treating it would look like).

in reply to Daniel Filan

OK from looking at sleep apnea stuff it seems like there's not much that can easily be done except for "try strengthening your tongue and soft palate so it doesn't block your airway when you sleep" so I guess I'll just do that.
in reply to Daniel Filan

Got a second opinion which said not to bother so I guess I probably won't?




Whenever I have to pass something between my phone and laptop (a photo, a note, a link that I'd rather deal with on my computer, etc), my default way to do it is to put it in a Facebook message to myself and then access it on the other device. This seems like a very Boomer way to do things but I don't know any other way.

in reply to Daniel Filan

every time I see a mg of caffeine number I google "caffeine in a cup of coffee" again because I haven't yet managed to store that number in my brain

it's 40mg so this is 5 (!) cups of coffee

in reply to Ben Millwood

Allegedly a single espresso shot can be up to 100mg, so I'm plausibly consuming at least this much caffeine every day (I have a medium-sized moka pot's worth). (This does not imply that this is in fact a hinged amount of caffeine to put in a Huel :p)
in reply to Amber Dawn

@Amber Dawn @Ben Millwood yeah when I google "caffeine in a cup of coffee" I get 95 mg - I think it depends a lot on the cup.


Somehow it feels like all of a sudden, the onset of darkness shifted significantly earlier, in a way that significantly changes the balance between day and night. I guess that the equinox is a real and important thing to be tracking?



A thing I didn't realize would be a consequence of making a niche podcast is how much podcast spam email I get. Mostly of the form "bring my client as a guest on your podcast", sometimes of the form "use our social medium" etc. Examples that I've received in the last ~week at the end of this post.

IDK maybe this is unsurprising given that podcasts have an email attached to them. Interestingly it does seem to happen more now that my podcast is more prominent than it was ~2 years ago.



AXRP Episode 36 - Adam Shai and Paul Riechers on Computational Mechanics


I made an episode about computational mechanics and I think it's cool and you should watch (or listen or read as the case may be)!

YouTube link
Transcript

Blurb I wrote:

Sometimes, people talk about transformers as having "world models" as a result of being trained to predict text data on the internet. But what does this even mean? In this episode, I talk with Adam Shai and Paul Riechers about their work applying computational mechanics, a sub-field of physics studying how to predict random processes, to neural networks.


ToC if that's interesting:
- 0:00:42 - What computational mechanics is
- 0:29:49 - Computational mechanics vs other approaches
- 0:36:16 - What world models are
- 0:48:41 - Fractals
- 0:57:43 - How the fractals are formed
- 1:09:55 - Scaling computational mechanics for transformers
- 1:21:52 - How Adam and Paul found computational mechanics
- 1:36:16 - Computational mechanics for AI safety
- 1:46:05 - Following Adam and Paul's research

in reply to Daniel Filan

Fun facts:
- I recorded this episode 3 months ago to the day - one of my longest publishing lags ever, in large part because of being busy with MATS.
- Some of the stuff we discuss got worked on during MATS.
- IDK I think this episode is pretty cool.
in reply to Daniel Filan

Watched the first 30 minutes before I saw this post - will return having seen this!


"soft inbox zero"


Unknown parent

Ben Millwood
I am guessing nobody checks emails more than a week old.


oh I definitely do! sure the value drops off over time, but I think for some things like "someone posted on a substack you subscribe to", reading it a year later isn't necessarily much worse than reading it in real time

I do think it makes sense to archive e-mails once you're like "even though there's something here, realistically I'm never going to do it", but I also think quite a lot of those things that you should have done some embarrassingly long time ago are actually still worth doing today



Kopia as encrypted backup provider?


Anyone have takes? Things I want:
- Encrypted backups, on my external hard drive + backblaze b2 (seems like it checks this box)
- Basically a reliable operation that's going to continue to exist, fix bugs, etc.
- Works nicely when people try to restore from backups.

Their website

in reply to Daniel Filan

I've been using restic (with B2) for ~6 years with no hiccups, including restoring in anger once (i.e. my local drives died). Kopia is newer and less popular; I don't see much reason to use it over restic unless there's some specific feature you want, though I also don't know of any particular reason not to use it.

(Restic's crypto has been informally reviewed by a cryptographer, who concluded he'd use it for his own backups; no idea what the state of Kopia's crypto is.)

in reply to Daniel Filan

I did not on purpose do the thing where you confidently say a wrong answer to get people to tell you the right answer but I'm glad that effect seems to have worked in my favour.



looking like I'll get credited as bug reporter for a Linux btrfs bug: patch and bug report

this is silver lining on how it has become harder over time for me to whole-heartedly recommend btrfs, especially to "ordinary" Linux end users... I think I'd still do it on balance? But I'd say a backup strategy is not optional. (But maybe I'd say that anyway.)

see also: my backup strategy

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

zfs has a couple of its own bugs that I've run into, e.g. bad handling of unplugged usb and terrible zfs diff performance. I don't feel super opinionated between them. zfs is a bit more aggressive about managing mount points and options instead of doing it via system configuration, which you might take as a good or bad thing. I find btrfs snapshots a bit more convenient to work with (they're just there on your disk, whereas with zfs I think you need to clone them to a new FS first or something)
in reply to Ben Millwood

Looking around on the internet for other issues just now, it's also apparently pretty common to run into showstopper bugs when trying to do zfs send or zfs receive on encrypted zpools. I've never tried it but that does seem pretty bad.

And yeah, that USB issue sure looks annoying :/

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Do you mean only with the native encryption? I use LUKS and I imagine it can't even tell I'm doing that?
in reply to Ben Millwood

yes, sorry, specifically with native encryption. afaik you're right that it doesn't know if it's running on top of LUKS
in reply to Ben Millwood



in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

My update: I'm finding my presence here self-sustaining rather than effortful. I wouldn't say I get as much value out of it as I do twitter, but I maybe get more out of it than FB. Probably because, like you, a lot of the fun I'm having is thought production rather than reading other people's things?


It's pretty relieving that, in the context of Friendica, I don't have to worry that links in the post get penalized by the ranking algorithm.


Is it just me or are some names "more meme-y" than other names? Like, Eliezer Yudkowsky. Very meme-y name. I feel like a name that meme-y is a genuine asset. Leopold Aschenbrenner. Also very meme-y.

Ben Weinstein-Raun? Hard for me to judge, but I'd guess middling meme-y-ness at best. Benjamin Weinstein-Raun seems at least a little meme-y-er. Should I start going by Benjamin in professional / semi-public contexts?

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

This inspires me to ask, how do you pronounce your surname? (I'm particularly unsure about the Raun part, but I guess the other part could be wine-steen or wine-stine). Names are more meme-able if people know how to say them, arguably. But then again, few know how to say Eliezer Yudkowsky when they read it for the first time!

I think my full name of Amber Dawn Ace is very meme-able, to the extent that people assume some part of it was chosen by me, but actually no, the first two were chosen by my mum and the third is the surname she was born with.

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Quoting bmcgee.ie/posts/2023/10/numtid…

This year, I met some new members of our federation [...], including what has to be the best example of nominative determinism I’ve ever encountered: Linus Heckemann (a.k.a. LinuxHackerman).


If you use Linux or FreeBSD and aren't paying attention today, there's an unauthenticated remote code execution vulnerability in CUPS. If you use Linux or FreeBSD, especially for a desktop or laptop computer, be sure to disable CUPS or see if you can update to a version with fixes for today's CVEs.

More info: phoronix.com/news/Linux-CVSS-9…



Replacing one mental question with another by mistake


As part of career reflection, I’ve been regularly trying to answer questions like ‘what’s your gut guess for what you’ll be doing this time next year?’. Today I noticed that my brain, casting about for the answer, was trying to instead answer the question ‘what do you feel most excited about doing?’, which is obviously different. I mean, maybe related, inasmuch as I am quite an excitement-driven person and maybe being excited about something does make me more likely to do it in future! But still.

Anyway, I feel like I once read a blog about something like this: accidentally replacing one mental question with another by mistake. It was probably by a rationality-sphere person. Anyone know what I’m talking about?



Flowers for Algernon: the two most weepy bits


“You’ve done so much with so little, I think you deserve it most of all” — the kind-hearted literacy teacher of the intellectually subnormal protagonist, who wants, more than anything, to learn and be ‘smart’.

“I don’t think it’s right to make you have to pass a test to eat” — the kind-hearted intellectually subnormal protagonist takes pity on the experimental mouse having to solve ‘amazeds’ to get food, unaware that he is describing his own plight as a very low-IQ person in a human society that has only the most threadbare of safety nets.



looking for recommendations in:

  • open-source server monitoring software (things like "e-mail me when the server is down", "e-mail me when the server is about to run out of disk space", and I guess optionally things like "record, store, and graph metrics like CPU and memory"); there seem to be a lot of options out there but I'd be interested in hearing anyone's personal experience
  • open-source issue tracker software -- similarly, there's a ton of them and I'm interested in hearing which ones people have had good experiences with. I'm mostly a minimalist here, with the exception that I want to be able to create ordered lists of issues (like GitHub projects).
in reply to Ben Millwood

btw, I've also spent a bunch of effort looking for decent issue trackers (open source or not) and have basically never found one that I like. FogBugz in 2006 or something was my favorite for a while, but I think at this point I'd find it limiting. So, if you find one that you like, I'd definitely be interested in hearing about it.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

very briefly looking over that list, I notice two entries that I don't remember evaluating that seem potentially promising: Request Tracker and Mantis BT.


Science demos


I've been curating a list of interesting science demonstrations one could do at home with only relatively small investment of time and money. For example, did you know you could make a cloud chamber sufficient to see tracks of cosmic rays using just some dry ice, alcohol, and craft supplies?

I've tried to be reasonably thorough without sacrificing quality, but I'm sure there's some good ones I'm missing. Any favorites?

writing.bakkot.com/science-dem…

in reply to Kevin Gibbons

I have only done a small fraction of these myself but I'm going to make a sincere effort to work through as many as I can with my kid/kids. I feel like a good science class should have a lot more of this stuff and significantly less memorization. You can memorize stuff once it's motivated, not before.
in reply to Kevin Gibbons

These are great! Some things that come to mind:

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Ooh, nice. The water boiling one is especially great; will add. (I love AlphaPhoenix; gotta binge the rest of his stuff at some point. Already have at least one of his other videos on the page.)
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Added both! The first as just a note on the existing Schlieren section. Let me know if you come across any more.


For anyone following me, you can also follow me on Mastodon @Alex Altair. You can do this right from your Friendica account! (But also from a Mastodon account.)
in reply to Alex Altair

the mathjax thing is an addon that you can choose to have on or off in your settings, I imagine @Ben Weinstein-Raun has it on and you don't


I really like that sometimes things get better over time. From 2016 - 2023 I fairly often did research to try to find the best indoor air quality monitor, and even though in principle it would have been very easy to manufacture something great, the actual competitors all sucked.

But I moved into a new house recently, and looked again; there's now at least one really good option: the QingPing Air Quality Monitor Gen 2.

Maybe it's spying on my for the Chinese government or something and that's why it's so good? But it has a pretty nice UI, measures ~all the relevant things (PM2.5, CO2, VOCs, humidity, temperature), and has an app that logs 30 days' worth of measurements. It's not cheap, but it is a bit cheaper than the similar things I'd bought for the purpose that were also substantially worse.

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

you're not responsible for how I spend my money :P was just curious in case it was a bug rather than a feature
in reply to Ben Millwood

it's also possible I was just generically not sleeping and the little fan noise was a misdiagnosis, turning it off did not immediately solve my problem


today's shower thought: among spherical, flat, and hyperbolic geometry, flat space is the only one where geometry is scale-invariant. so it's the only one where you can have scale models of things! it's the only geometry that can support Warhammer 40k and that Zoolander joke about the centre for ants

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