New AXRP with Jaime Sevilla!
Epoch AI is the premier organization that tracks the trajectory of AI - how much compute is used, the role of algorithmic improvements, the growth in data used, and when the above trends might hit an end. In this episode, I speak with the director of Epoch AI, Jaime Sevilla, about how compute, data, and algorithmic improvements are impacting AI, and whether continuing to scale can get us AGI.
I set up my own friendica instance for testing + potentially developing addons to propose to @Ben Weinstein-Raun . (Main experience: surprisingly large amounts of "this is broken, why doesn't it log anything anywhere?")
I've been away from PHP for a long time and had forgotten how normal it is that you put your code in all the folders that your webserver is configured to send to your clients, and you have to make some of the folders writable by the webserver or it won't work. I can kind of imagine lots of PHP-native people being like "sure, that makes sense" but it sounds so insane to me. How many security compromises would never have happened if someone early in PHP's development demanded better filesystem-level separation of code and data, and demanded that the places you could write to and the places you ran code from weren't the same places?
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It's also worth pointing out that the questions of "what could I exchange for one more hour of work?" and "who should get moral credit for my ability to work one more hour?" are different questions, and arguably it's the first and not the second that you should use when deciding whether to take the bus or a cab or whatever. So, for example, the man supported by his wife may already receive enough support for him to work longer hours than he does, so while the wife is an important part of why he's able to work that much, she doesn't have to do any more work for him to work an additional hour, so he should value freeing up an extra hour without taking the cost of her work into account.
Similarly, if e.g. my commute experience is not restful, then maybe I think that all my rest supports the total time I spend commuting and working, and so I'm justified in spending up to my hourly work rate to reduce my commute.
RSP overhang
A complaint about AI pause: if we pause AI and then unpause, progress will then be really quick, because there's a backlog of improvements in compute and algorithmic efficiency that can be immediately applied.
One definition of what an RSP is: if a lab makes observation O, then they pause scaling until they implement protection P.
Doesn't this sort of RSP have the same problem with fast progress after pausing? Why have I never heard anyone make this complaint about RSPs? Possibilities:
- They do and I just haven't seen it
- People expect "AI pause" to produce longer / more serious pauses than RSPs (but this seems incidental to the core structure of RSPs)
Crossposted from LessWrong
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Oh nice, I figured out how to enable embedded videos. So here's the cool drone video but you don't have to click a link:
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Notes on superstimulus
- It's very small, and most people who I would want to talk to aren't here
- I don't find it that rewarding to check because I don't see that much stuff.
- That said, I do like it
- I think it's because I feel some obligation to post minimally thoughtful things here. Where on FB / twitter / my personal slack channel, I just post whatever's on my mind.
- This would be a bad omen if true
- That said, it's possible that's because there's a decent quality of people here, and/or 2014-era FB was an unusually good architecture for hosting discussions.
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Sometimes people say that you can't really have law under anarchy. But, inspired by a recent episode of Divided Argument (dividedargument.com/episodes/s…), I think American constitutional law is a counterexample.
Constitutional law looks and acts like law that constrains the federal and state governments. But there isn't a super-government that rules over the federal government that constitutional law appeals to, where if the federal government disobeyed rulings the super-government would punish them. Instead, courts rule on constitutional law, and the federal government follows, probably because the individual humans who work for the government by and large think that's the best for them in the long run.
This doesn't prove that law for humans could work without a state. There are way more humans than there are governments, so even a small rate of people ignoring courts is quite bad (where a small rate of governments ignoring courts is tolerable). And of course there are a bunch of other disanalogies. But it does indicate that stateless law is a conceivable thing.
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Notes from my dental appointment:
1. apparently I have recessed gums, and they recommend I get a scaling and root planing procedure, which is pretty expensive
2. apparently my tongue is big enough that there's a good chance I have (undiagnosed and asymptomatic) obstructive sleep apnea
Anyone have opinions about how seriously I should take this? For 1, I have a general sense that dentists sometimes upsell people, and for 2, I don't know if undiagnosed sleep apnea is actually a big deal (or what the cost/benefit of treating it would look like).
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every time I see a mg of caffeine number I google "caffeine in a cup of coffee" again because I haven't yet managed to store that number in my brain
it's 40mg so this is 5 (!) cups of coffee
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A thing I didn't realize would be a consequence of making a niche podcast is how much podcast spam email I get. Mostly of the form "bring my client as a guest on your podcast", sometimes of the form "use our social medium" etc. Examples that I've received in the last ~week at the end of this post.
IDK maybe this is unsurprising given that podcasts have an email attached to them. Interestingly it does seem to happen more now that my podcast is more prominent than it was ~2 years ago.
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AXRP Episode 36 - Adam Shai and Paul Riechers on Computational Mechanics
I made an episode about computational mechanics and I think it's cool and you should watch (or listen or read as the case may be)!
Blurb I wrote:
Sometimes, people talk about transformers as having "world models" as a result of being trained to predict text data on the internet. But what does this even mean? In this episode, I talk with Adam Shai and Paul Riechers about their work applying computational mechanics, a sub-field of physics studying how to predict random processes, to neural networks.
ToC if that's interesting:
- 0:00:42 - What computational mechanics is
- 0:29:49 - Computational mechanics vs other approaches
- 0:36:16 - What world models are
- 0:48:41 - Fractals
- 0:57:43 - How the fractals are formed
- 1:09:55 - Scaling computational mechanics for transformers
- 1:21:52 - How Adam and Paul found computational mechanics
- 1:36:16 - Computational mechanics for AI safety
- 1:46:05 - Following Adam and Paul's research
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- I recorded this episode 3 months ago to the day - one of my longest publishing lags ever, in large part because of being busy with MATS.
- Some of the stuff we discuss got worked on during MATS.
- IDK I think this episode is pretty cool.
I am guessing nobody checks emails more than a week old.
oh I definitely do! sure the value drops off over time, but I think for some things like "someone posted on a substack you subscribe to", reading it a year later isn't necessarily much worse than reading it in real time
I do think it makes sense to archive e-mails once you're like "even though there's something here, realistically I'm never going to do it", but I also think quite a lot of those things that you should have done some embarrassingly long time ago are actually still worth doing today
Kopia as encrypted backup provider?
Anyone have takes? Things I want:
- Encrypted backups, on my external hard drive + backblaze b2 (seems like it checks this box)
- Basically a reliable operation that's going to continue to exist, fix bugs, etc.
- Works nicely when people try to restore from backups.
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I've been using restic (with B2) for ~6 years with no hiccups, including restoring in anger once (i.e. my local drives died). Kopia is newer and less popular; I don't see much reason to use it over restic unless there's some specific feature you want, though I also don't know of any particular reason not to use it.
(Restic's crypto has been informally reviewed by a cryptographer, who concluded he'd use it for his own backups; no idea what the state of Kopia's crypto is.)
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looking like I'll get credited as bug reporter for a Linux btrfs bug: patch and bug report
this is silver lining on how it has become harder over time for me to whole-heartedly recommend btrfs, especially to "ordinary" Linux end users... I think I'd still do it on balance? But I'd say a backup strategy is not optional. (But maybe I'd say that anyway.)
see also: my backup strategy
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Looking around on the internet for other issues just now, it's also apparently pretty common to run into showstopper bugs when trying to do zfs send or zfs receive on encrypted zpools. I've never tried it but that does seem pretty bad.
And yeah, that USB issue sure looks annoying :/
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Is it just me or are some names "more meme-y" than other names? Like, Eliezer Yudkowsky. Very meme-y name. I feel like a name that meme-y is a genuine asset. Leopold Aschenbrenner. Also very meme-y.
Ben Weinstein-Raun? Hard for me to judge, but I'd guess middling meme-y-ness at best. Benjamin Weinstein-Raun seems at least a little meme-y-er. Should I start going by Benjamin in professional / semi-public contexts?
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This inspires me to ask, how do you pronounce your surname? (I'm particularly unsure about the Raun part, but I guess the other part could be wine-steen or wine-stine). Names are more meme-able if people know how to say them, arguably. But then again, few know how to say Eliezer Yudkowsky when they read it for the first time!
I think my full name of Amber Dawn Ace is very meme-able, to the extent that people assume some part of it was chosen by me, but actually no, the first two were chosen by my mum and the third is the surname she was born with.
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Quoting bmcgee.ie/posts/2023/10/numtid…
This year, I met some new members of our federation [...], including what has to be the best example of nominative determinism I’ve ever encountered: Linus Heckemann (a.k.a. LinuxHackerman).
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If you use Linux or FreeBSD and aren't paying attention today, there's an unauthenticated remote code execution vulnerability in CUPS. If you use Linux or FreeBSD, especially for a desktop or laptop computer, be sure to disable CUPS or see if you can update to a version with fixes for today's CVEs.
More info: phoronix.com/news/Linux-CVSS-9…
Unauthenticated RCE Flaw With CVSS 9.9 Rating For Linux Systems Affects CUPS
There's been much speculation since this morning over a reported 'severe' unauthenticated remote code execution (RCE) flaw affecting Linux systems that carries a CVSS 9.9.9 score..www.phoronix.com
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Replacing one mental question with another by mistake
As part of career reflection, I’ve been regularly trying to answer questions like ‘what’s your gut guess for what you’ll be doing this time next year?’. Today I noticed that my brain, casting about for the answer, was trying to instead answer the question ‘what do you feel most excited about doing?’, which is obviously different. I mean, maybe related, inasmuch as I am quite an excitement-driven person and maybe being excited about something does make me more likely to do it in future! But still.
Anyway, I feel like I once read a blog about something like this: accidentally replacing one mental question with another by mistake. It was probably by a rationality-sphere person. Anyone know what I’m talking about?
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Flowers for Algernon: the two most weepy bits
“You’ve done so much with so little, I think you deserve it most of all” — the kind-hearted literacy teacher of the intellectually subnormal protagonist, who wants, more than anything, to learn and be ‘smart’.
“I don’t think it’s right to make you have to pass a test to eat” — the kind-hearted intellectually subnormal protagonist takes pity on the experimental mouse having to solve ‘amazeds’ to get food, unaware that he is describing his own plight as a very low-IQ person in a human society that has only the most threadbare of safety nets.
looking for recommendations in:
- open-source server monitoring software (things like "e-mail me when the server is down", "e-mail me when the server is about to run out of disk space", and I guess optionally things like "record, store, and graph metrics like CPU and memory"); there seem to be a lot of options out there but I'd be interested in hearing anyone's personal experience
- open-source issue tracker software -- similarly, there's a ton of them and I'm interested in hearing which ones people have had good experiences with. I'm mostly a minimalist here, with the exception that I want to be able to create ordered lists of issues (like GitHub projects).
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Science demos
I've been curating a list of interesting science demonstrations one could do at home with only relatively small investment of time and money. For example, did you know you could make a cloud chamber sufficient to see tracks of cosmic rays using just some dry ice, alcohol, and craft supplies?
I've tried to be reasonably thorough without sacrificing quality, but I'm sure there's some good ones I'm missing. Any favorites?
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These are great! Some things that come to mind:
- If you build a good schlieren setup you can use it to see supersonic jets from "canned air" dusters: youtube.com/watch?v=DfYlLns0el…
- You can boil water with 50ft of hose: youtube.com/watch?v=hHNoHhbfFD…
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I really like that sometimes things get better over time. From 2016 - 2023 I fairly often did research to try to find the best indoor air quality monitor, and even though in principle it would have been very easy to manufacture something great, the actual competitors all sucked.
But I moved into a new house recently, and looked again; there's now at least one really good option: the QingPing Air Quality Monitor Gen 2.
Maybe it's spying on my for the Chinese government or something and that's why it's so good? But it has a pretty nice UI, measures ~all the relevant things (PM2.5, CO2, VOCs, humidity, temperature), and has an app that logs 30 days' worth of measurements. It's not cheap, but it is a bit cheaper than the similar things I'd bought for the purpose that were also substantially worse.
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