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A partial list of people whose art I've loved, and who I might have liked to be friends with, but who I think would not like me very much (all for different reasons):

  • Ursula K. LeGuin (I'm not MtG Green enough)
  • Ayn Rand (I'm too MtG Green)
  • Ezra Koenig (I'm too MtG Blue)

I'm not really sure how or why I generated this list. It feels related to the thing about wanting to get stronger, and deleting my facebook last month. It's kind of an "edge-y" question: I don't know how to emotionally deal with the existence of people in this category, but they go on existing.



Okay, where is the few-shot "reads literally all the article summaries from the whole internet and predicts how much I'd like them" service?
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I was starting to wonder where it was when GPT 3.5 came out, and now I'm really feeling like it's suspicious
This entry was edited (6 days ago)
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I also am really annoyed the "read all my notifications, alert me about the few important ones, and batch summarize the rest" service hasn't been built


An unfortunate thing for me is that I just viscerally really like LLMs, and would like them even more if they were way smarter.


in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I feel like I'm living on the internet these days, since my health is too bad for in-person stuff. So it sucks that the internet is so much more aggro.

> My strategy so far in life has just been to avoid being the kind of person who attracts "sharp" / "angry" critics, and also to filter my social bubble to exclude them. But this doesn't scale if you're trying to do the things I'm trying to do.

What are you doing that is incompatible with filtering your social bubble?

in reply to kip

Mainly: Change what happens in the world on a pretty large scale, while not being Carl Shulman.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Re: method "c": I'm wondering if you could intentionally give yourself exposure to critics in a way that's less vulnerable. The most obvious ways to do this might be too insincere for your taste, but idk, maybe there's still something you can do?

Like if I were trying to do this, I might create an anonymous account and intentionally share my most controversial (yet unimportant) thoughts/opinions, in places where some people will probably get mad at me. (Hopefully not in a way that, like, antagonizes people? I'd want it to be net good.) Then I'd try to lean into a mindset that getting criticism is a necessary/normal part of getting noticed.



A mana pool, a ball... uh... a star, rats, a hullabaloo, panama


Idle thought: I wonder if we'll start seeing "training@home" training runs for open-source LLMs. Anyone care to run some numbers or sanity checks on whether this is possible in principle?

The folding@home project has been hugely successful, reaching at least exaFLOPS of compute.

"Training@home" would have to efficiently do partial gradient updates on extremely heterogeneous hardware with widely varying network properties; I'm not sure if this has any chance of producing base models competitive with e.g. Llama. In terms of ops alone, a 1 exaFLOPS network would have taken 10^7 seconds = ~half a year to train Llama 70b, and I imagine the costs of distributing jobs to such a network and coordinating on weight updates would make this much more expensive. So, probably not going to be competitive?

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Just this month there was a proof of concept doing distributed training of a 15B parameter model using a new technique to reduce the amount of data that needs to be shared between GPUs, so that it's actually feasible for them to not be co-located. Which is neat! Buuuut they still were using H100s (80GB of memory) as their basic unit of compute. I don't think their technique lets you train models larger than would fit in memory on each GPU, which means any training@home project is going to be limited to single- or low-double-digit billions of parameters. Small models are neat and serve some purposes but we already have a lot of pretty good ones (Llama, Phi, Gemma, NeMo, etc) and it's not clear what the niche would be for a community-trained one. (I mean, porn, I guess, but there's already a lot of NSFW fine-tunes of those models.)
in reply to Kevin Gibbons

I would guess that there will be reasons to at least want an LLM trained on an open corpus, whether it's community-trained or not.

Example reasons include ensuring that the model isn't secretly trying to get you to buy McDonalds, and the possibility that companies start releasing un-fine-tunable models.


Ben Weinstein-Raun reshared this.


Happy new year superstims!


Sparklers are illegal in Alameda county apparently, so I guess I'm off to commit some crimes.

Ben Weinstein-Raun reshared this.



Man, I miss my huge-tree-antenna. Yesterday I set up a big loop antenna along my house's wall. It transmits fine, but the noise it picks up makes it almost useless.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Is this a problem that can be solved with money, like by just going ahead and getting an arborist preemptively?
in reply to Gretta Duleba

It definitely can't be solved with only money; it also requires at least coordinating with the landlord, who is a very reasonable person as far as Berkeley rationalist house landlords seem to go, but overall my guess is that it's not worth bothering him about it
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I am probably being too problem-solvey right now and I hereby to resolve to stop after this round, but in my experience, arborists are willing to produce documentation of their findings that can later be shown to landlords!

You just sound sad about your antenna and I wanna fix it.



I've been meaning to start donating blood and/or plasma for a few years now, partly because it's a good thing to do, but also as a way to shed accumulating substances (PFASs have been studied, but also background heavy metals in the case of whole blood donation), but I use topical finasteride for hair loss, which I'd have to stop for a month before donating.

So, say I took a month off from finasteride, and then spent a month donating: whole blood once, and plasma 7 times. If my math is right, I'd have donated / regenerated 1 - 0.92^8 = ~half my blood volume; and ~10% of my body weight. Then maybe back to finasteride for two months, another month of no finasteride, and another donation month?

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

It's a shame doctors don't do blood-letting any more.
in reply to Daniel Filan

Maybe precisely in order to incentivize people to donate blood????
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

This doesnt address your musings . . . but I found plasma donation prohibitively unpleasant. It was painful and time consuming. By comparison, whole blood donation is a simple and easy way to help.


I'm finding it really hard to make #hamradio contacts in Delaware. Weirdly hard, given that the five states with smaller populations than Delaware were all much easier, even though some of them are further from me, and I've had no trouble making contacts in its neighboring states.

A few days ago I decided to try to be more strategic about contacting every US state since I was really close, and I've now spent probably twice the time trying to contact Delaware, as trying to contact all four of the other stragglers combined.

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I just did the math, and it seems like Delaware is the state with the #2 lowest non-urban population. Only Rhode Island should be more difficult
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Ok, now I looked at the ARRL license counts by state. Going by General+Extra only, modified for non-urban population percentage, Delaware comes out as the worst state.


Today I was inspired to ask ChatGPT for help with my health issues for the first time since o1 was released. It suggested that I might have Cushing's Syndrome, which actually makes a lot of sense. I don't think any doctors ever suggested this directly, but I do have a recollection of a doctor asking me if I was extremely thirsty or urinating a lot (I wasn't), which might have been a question for a relevant differential.

So hopefully tomorrow I'm going to wake up and go get a cortisol test.

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Hm, cortisol levels are on the high end of normal. I wonder if I did have cushing's syndrome but am now managing it using ashwagandha and antidepressants.

Ben Weinstein-Raun reshared this.


Merry Christmas superstimulus!

Ben Weinstein-Raun reshared this.



A big chunk of my current best-guess political philosophy is somewhat libertarian, the rough intuition being that in many important respects, things very often go better when people make their own choices, especially about how much things are worth to them.

This is a helpful framework when the agents in your economy / political system are relatively static entities. But as far as I know it doesn't really have anything to say about cases where one agent might mold another agent's preferences, or decide which agents to bring into existence.

Some examples include:

  • having children
  • many aspects of how children are raised
  • building AI agents
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

This suggests that if we want to figure out a liberal philosophy of building AI, we should look to find liberal philosophies of child-rearing.
in reply to Daniel Filan

Also have I tried to sell you on the book "Rationalism, pluralism, and freedom" yet?
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

It's one of these books where there's one idea and the rest of the book is not super interesting once you're sold on the idea but: academic.oup.com/book/2889
in reply to Daniel Filan

It doesn't answer your worries as far as I know, but feels like it offers conceptual vocabulary that's relevant.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Population ethics is the ~one area where my moral intuitions bottom out at "there is no actual answer here". Most questions of morality intuitively feel like there is a right answer but thinking about population ethics consistently leaves me with no solid foundations and nowhere to get foundations.

(Related: how should we think about farming animals for meat, given that mostly they wouldn't exist otherwise?)



Proposed fun / slightly edgy party game: Perzendo

Materials: index cards and a pencil, or a google doc.

One player is the perzendo master. This perzendo master writes the names of two people in the room, in a list sorted by some secret property.

The other players take turns. On each turn, a player either proposes a name (of any human, living or dead), or tries to guess the property. The perzendo master puts these names on the list, wherever they fall according to the secret property.

The first player to guess the rule correctly wins.

This entry was edited (1 month ago)
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

wouldn't the master quite often not know where they fall on the list? or does the property have to be something like "how much I personally want to ask them what's wrong with them" so that there's an answer even for people you've never heard of (presumably, not very much)
in reply to Ben Millwood

Yeah I think you either have to have an "I don't know" bucket, or it has to somehow be always up to the master's impression.


TIL that an experience that I've had ~once every month or so for my whole life, and assumed was near-universal, is actually relatively rare, and correlated with various bad things that I'm not aware of experiencing in relation to it (EBV infection, migraines, head trauma).

Basically, as I experience it (typically right as I'm falling asleep) everything visually starts to feel very small and far away, except that my tongue feels large and cumbersome in my mouth.

It's called Alice in Wonderland Syndrome; other people experience similar size distortions though the details vary a lot.

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

When I was younger, I heard some stories (that in retrospect may not have been true) of people with head injuries who became extremely gifted in certain ways. Dreamer that I am, I of course vaguely hoped this would happen to me (I knew I was really asking for a lot in this fantasy). And now the same fanciful part of me wonders if maybe it did happen, and I would have been pretty normal, but for a childhood bonk on the head?
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I don't know if we have discussed this . . . but me, too. So maybe it was passed down.


I've now rescheduled my entire life around getting a hernia consultation twice, only to have UCSF reschedule at the last minute.
This entry was edited (1 month ago)

kip doesn't like this.



Tried using a portable vertical #hamradio antenna in my back yard this evening, as a replacement for the one I took down from the tree. It worked okay. Nowhere near the coverage I was getting from the 107ft wire, but I did manage to make a couple ft8 QSOs a few states away (South Dakota being the furthest).


Llama 3.3-70b is quite good; I think it's clearly the best local model I've tried. Not quite as good as GPT-4 on things I've tried so far, but I think better than GPT-3.5.


A wind storm two nights ago took a big branch down from the tree my antenna was in, so I took the antenna down until we have a chance to get the tree looked at. Very sad to have to pause my FT8 fun, but even if this is the end for a while I've had a great time.

niplav reshared this.


Pascal's Wager doesn't go far enough:

Granted, the Christian God offers infinite rewards, but as far as I can find this is always in terms of "eternal" life or "eternal" communion with him, and so we can be confident that he is offering rewards only as large as the cardinality of the continuum.

So come on down to Crazy Georg's Omega Plus First Church of G...d: If you can conceive of a God advertising any size of infinite reward, G...d will match it.

This entry was edited (1 month ago)
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Granted, the Christian God offers infinite rewards, but as far as I can find this is always in terms of "eternal" life or "eternal" communion with him, and so we can be confident that he is offering rewards only as large as the cardinality of the continuum.


FWIW I think it's plausible that the Greek words used in the NT doesn't have this sort of connotation.

in reply to Daniel Filan

I would find this surprising, since I don't model the ancients as having concepts for infinity that could correspond to larger infinities than this
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I'm imagining that the words / concepts they used were vague enough to include those higher cardinals - e.g. my understanding is that a lot of the words that get translated as "everlasting" could also be translated as "of the ages".
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I found this relevant and interesting chapter from Unsong by thinking "hmm, but Omega is an ancient word in some sense, and it's been more recently used in the context of infinities... and Jesus also referred to 'alpha and omega' to represent something like infinitude. So I can probably make a joke about kabbalah. Oh, but Scott Alexander will have already done that."

unsongbook.com/interlude-%D7%9…

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

This entry was edited (2 weeks ago)


On Friday I tried to show @Daniel Filan how FT8 works, but I was having a really hard time getting QSOs. I was worried something was wrong with my #hamradio antenna setup, since the internet claimed that band conditions should be good. But this afternoon and evening I had a great time and got 17 QSOs across 5 different bands! So I think Friday must have been something transient rather than my (very janky) setup degrading.

I now have confirmed QSOs in 40 states, and unconfirmed ones in all but 3! (North Dakota, Delaware, and Vermont. Almost managed to get one in Delaware today, but wasn't quite able to complete the protocol) Plus 28 "DX entities" (mostly countries, but includes e.g. Alaska and Hawaii separately) on 6 continents!

Map of listening stations that heard me this afternoon:



Ended up deactivating my facebook yesterday. I wish I could have emotionally handled whatever was going on, but the only way I know how to productively deal with expressions of anger at that depth, apparently doesn't scale past one or two people at a time.

Last night I felt really conflicted about it. Like, I had just been trying to get people to give me harsh feedback, hadn't I? Doesn't this undermine that, or feel like a petty table-flipping move?

I still have some of those worries, but today I'm feeling like it was obviously the right move. Like if I had a gangrenous limb or something and had cut it off: It's pretty awful that I lost a limb, but it's way better than losing my whole self. Plus in this case I can reattach it if I figure out how to get rid of the gangrene.

This entry was edited (1 month ago)
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

what was going on on FB that made you want to deactivate it, if you want to share? the last thing I looked at of yours seemed to be positively received
in reply to Gina Stuessy

I think this was a different post; basically, I wrote a post about the United Healthcare CEO assassination (the gist was, "it's wrong to express glee about someone's death"). It got a decent number of mildly positive reactions, but also a small cascade of intense negative reactions, a couple of which were kinda vicious.

Daniel Filan doesn't like this.



It's so fucking shitty that the easy way to feel better when someone is angry at you is to totally dismiss them as crazy or evil.


Just realized I've been paying for my old group house's internet for almost three years. I'm out $3000, since there's no way I'm asking them to pay me back all of that; it's my responsibility to look at my own bank statements. Honestly relieved my burn rate will drop, but also I really need to pay better attention to my account statements.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

if $3000 is too much to ask them to pay you back, surely they should at least pay you the maximal amount that isn't too much :P

minimally you could be like "I don't think it's fair for me to charge you the full amount but if you could think about what seems affordable / reasonable to you and pay me that I would be grateful"

although tbh I think it kind of is fair to at least suggest they might pay the full amount, even if you don't want to insist on it

This entry was edited (1 month ago)
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

also thank you for this story because I do read and categorise my bank statement line items and sometimes I say this to people and they're like "why do you do this" and it is sometimes hard to have a good answer :P


This entry was edited (1 month ago)


Have you ever successfully caused yourself to love something that you didn't naturally love? How did you do that? I'm especially interested in cases where you made a conscious decision that you were going to learn to love the thing, and then succeeded via strategy.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

My not-quite-the-answer is that I think I've encouraged myself in loving things. There's a feeling of getting obsessed with something that I occasionally notice myself having. I can try to cultivate that intentionally. The most notable example where this felt like a real successful guidance was in getting really into Rust.


Okay, I think a worthier target of "whoa, this programming language is cool" than V, is Koka.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

The other downside:

the delimited continuations in OCaml must be used linearly – every captured continuation must be resumed either with a continue or discontinue exactly once. Attempting to use a continuation more than once raises a Continuation_already_resumed exception.
It is left to the user to ensure that the captured continuations are resumed at least once. Not resuming continuations will leak the memory allocated for the fibers as well as any resources that the suspended computation may hold.


whereas I think Koka ensures things don't leak and also lets you resume multiple times, so you can do things like this: github.com/koka-lang/koka/blob…

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Apparently I was wrong about the standard library not having a sort function - it's just undocumented AFAICT! github.com/TimWhiting/advent-2…

Oh, I see, it's in the community std library: github.com/koka-community/std/…

This entry was edited (1 month ago)


:o

However, I should mention that I may be hallucinating these specific book titles and dates since I don't have access to a current book database.


  • Claude Sonnet 3.6
in reply to Ben Millwood

Kinda interesting that they chose that word to describe LLM falsehoods, like it gives the impression they are constantly having extremely boring trips XD



I think web-of-trust is underused for spam and abuse prevention.

e.g. there could be a pretty simple "endorse" button for each account, which is basically saying "I vouch that this person is a real human and not a troll/spammer". Webs/chains of endorsement could be used to prove that someone ought to be able to interact with you. And for any given active interaction attempt ("react", "friend request", "tag"), there could be an opportunity to mark it as "spam", and accounts with lots of spam could become untrusted, and accounts that endorse lots of spam accounts could become untrusted as well.

In principle you could even implement this in an entirely decentralized way with some public-key crypto, though it might be too expensive in practice.



:o vlang looks... very very cool to me. I am surprised that it's more than 5 years old, since it seems to offer many things that I've been wanting from a programming language and periodically searching for without luck:

  • Sum types
  • interfaces/traits/similar
  • generics
  • Reasonably fast at runtime (roughly on par with e.g. Go, from what I can tell)
  • optional GC
  • cares about development time (e.g. compilation times are fast)
  • cares about various kinds of safety (not as much as Rust, more than Zig). I think there are some substantial tradeoffs here around what happens if you avoid using the GC, since I think there's no borrow checking; e.g. does the stdlib have types that grow and invalidate your references?
  • extremely good cross-platform support (cross-compile GUI libraries for ~any platform including mobile, except that you can only build for macOS from macOS)

Basically it seems like they've added the ~3 features whose lack has made Go unpleasant for me when I've tried to use it.

vlang.io/

in reply to Daniel Ziegler

Yeah, or even Haskell; I always crave traits/typeclasses/interfaces when they're not available.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I think one of the key helpful things about my OCaml experience was learning about how much typeclass stuff can or can't be replaced with other mechanisms (e.g. making it convenient to locally control namespaces so that you can easily specify "I want X from module Y" instead of having it be type-driven).

It both lets you notice when you shouldn't (or at least needn't) be using ad-hoc polymorphism but also when you really do need it (e.g. OCaml I think would struggle to properly replicate Traversable and some other higher-order-polymorphism things).



@Daniel Filan apparently the "learning ancient Latin and Greek involves example texts about daily life heavily involving slaves" thing dates at least back to ancient Roman schools for learning Greek.

youtu.be/yc-JYUqIsI4?si=k-hcZi…

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Also thanks for the rec! I passed this up based on the thumbnail but it's really interesting!
in reply to Daniel Filan

Yeah I was kind of embarrassed to share it given the title, since apparently I clicked for some reason, but agree that it turned out to be interesting.


Someone stole nearly all of my clothes this morning. I hate buying clothes because I hate the way I look, but I had to do it anyway, because all but two of my t-shirts were in the stolen bag and I'm flying to Nebraska for Thanksgiving on Sunday. I would like to live in a place where property crime was taken seriously.

don't like this

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Jeez 😢.

A few days ago we found an open duffel bag with a bunch of clothes strewn around it in front of our door (also in Berkeley). My assumption is that it was stolen and everything valuable was removed before it was discarded. Sadly I couldn't find any info about the owner, so we couldn't even return the remaining clothes.

Ben Weinstein-Raun doesn't like this.

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Ahhh wow. That sucks. I'm sorry you have to buy all your clothing again, that sounds really annoying.

A few years ago I went to a clothing swap. Someone brought a unique red and black scarf from overseas. It was lightweight and really pretty. I gave it to my partner (at the time) as soon as I got it. They had it in their backpack, and they left that backpack in their car for a few minutes while grabbing food from Butcher's Son. That was enough time for it to get stolen. Memorably disappointing.

Ben Weinstein-Raun doesn't like this.



Does anyone know how to productively/supportively receive "venting"-shaped communication, when you don't want to reinforce or implicitly endorse the frame or set or assumptions that the venting is based in?

I feel like I have this dilemma a lot of the time: like, someone wants to share something that they're angry or upset or annoyed about, and clearly wants me to be entirely on their side about the thing, and I want to emotionally support them, understand where they're coming from, and help them process and/or strategize.

But honestly about 80% of the time, especially if it's someone who I'm not extremely close to, I find it really hard to straightforwardly do those things because I feel triggered about the context somehow, either because it seems like it's assuming things I don't believe, or because I feel attacked in some way, e.g. because I often have substantial sympathy toward the target of the anger or annoyance, as well as toward my friend.

I wish I knew what to do in these situations.

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I’m going through this problem right now and I’m stuck on the thing that various people mention above about affirming or validating feelings. It’s very hard to come up with a true statement i can utter that acknowledges the feeling well without implying some agreement with the frame.
in reply to David Mears

I ended up using conditionals: “I can understand why you would be upset”, “It would be hurtful to feel [how they interpret the situation]”


In the past I've been a little skeptical of the fediverse (and similar things). But it's suddenly feeling real to me that I can have my cute lil Friendica instance with my friends and treat it like Facebook, while also engaging with friends on Mastodon or Bluesky who didn't have to join my instance, and this feels genuinely exciting.


Allegedly, the Bluesky connector in Friendica should let you use your Bluesky account from within Superstimulus (go to Settings -> Social Networks). I have a Bluesky account, but I don't really use Bluesky so I don't know how well it works yet. I've enabled "post to Bluesky by default"; fingers crossed!


I've said this and things like it elsewhere, but o1-preview feels qualitatively better than other LLMs to me, in a way that I don't think I experienced even with GPT-4 vs GPT-3. My implicit superintelligence timelines actually grew a bit longer with GPT-4's release, and have grown a bit more in the time since, but using o1-preview has shrunk them again. It's also increased my felt probability that AI systems will be scheme-y in ways that are hard to detect.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Convenient timing: o1 is now available to all usage tiers in the API, so I believe you can just sign up and start using it.


HomeAssistant. Wow. How had I not heard of this before this year?

It's allegedly an open source home automation system, but I keep running into ways that it's actually way better than that. You can connect it to just about anything: Sure, air conditioning and lighting and smart locks and all the other home automation stuff. But also fitbit, mattress coolers, various internet data sources; you can use it to set up a custom ChatGPT-powered Google Home replacement (finally!).

And it's all so polished! Like, yes you need to be a level-1 technical person to set it up, and to use the more advanced features, but the flows are so reasonable and reliable. I'm genuinely kinda shocked.



Panavise, Panavise
Every clamp holds so sweetly
Squared up right, fastened tight
You hold projects so neatly

Helpful jaw may you roll and yaw
roll and yaw forever
Panavise, Panavise
Bless my workbench forever



Ngl, I still get a little rush when I go to the store and see trading card packs, even for games I've never played.