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Johann Friedrich Morgenstern
From https://x.com/0zmnds/status/1890834305208696987
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Usually when people talk about egregores, I think they mostly have ideologies in mind.

There's a somewhat "lower-level" egregore (in the sense of a low-level language, not a low-level demon), that I think is pretty overlooked, that I think of as "emotional cynicism" (to distinguish it as specifically the emotional stance we associate with the word "cynical", and from capital-c Greek Cynicism).

Emotional cynicism seems to me to be near totally dominant in public online discourse, and I think that's both interesting and somewhat concerning.

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I think I agree with you, though I'm curious for examples of types of things you might see as an expression of emotional cynicism.
in reply to JP Addison

  • a pretty large subset of comments on hacker news, lesswrong, ...
  • ~All reddit/Twitter/bluesky political discourse


Yet another short AXRP episode!


With Anthony Aguirre!

The Future of Life Institute is one of the oldest and most prominant organizations in the AI existential safety space, working on such topics as the AI pause open letter and how the EU AI Act can be improved. Metaculus is one of the premier forecasting sites on the internet. Behind both of them lie one man: Anthony Aguirre, who I talk with in this episode.

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One of my favorite tests for chatbots is asking for book recommendations. I give it a list of books I liked and books I didn't like (and some flavor for why) and ask them what to read.

They're... ok at this, mostly. It's funny because I always feel like this should be a very straightforward traditional ML problem to do with Goodreads data or whatever but none of the things which purport to be that (Storygraph, etc) are any good at all.

Anyway, o3-mini seems to be the best at this so far for whatever reason. With the same prompt as I've been using elsewhere, it gave me 7 books of which I'd already read and enjoyed 5. Best hit rate on that metric from other chatbots was ~1/4, and in several cases they included books in a series I'd explicitly said as part of the prompt that I didn't enjoy.

in reply to Kevin Gibbons

I also appreciated this from Claude:

> Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card - Strategic thinking protagonist if you haven't read it already

... Yes, Clause, you're absolutely correct to assume that I've probably already read Ender's Game based on the list of books I enjoyed, well done.

in reply to Kevin Gibbons



Are fans actually white noise machines? If so, why? It seems like they're the sort of thing that has an obvious frequency that would matter so I'm not sure what's going on. Maybe that the air gets routed thru grates and stuff and that creates the white noise?
in reply to Daniel Filan

I guess they sort of obviously don't have the high pitch components that real white noise machines do.


Ugh, this guy built my high school dream project and I am simultaneously grinning widely and very jealous.


"I understand your concern, but" / "I share your concern, but"

Recently I've noticed that this phrase seems especially likely to ring hollow: When I hear someone say it about something that feels important to me, I usually don't believe them. Usually the phrase is accompanied by some degree of a "missing mood": If you're concerned, why do you seem to think that a declaration that you understand should be sufficient argument that in fact this concern is a secondary one? How sure are you that you actually understand?

I don't like it when people just straight-up assert that they've considered and rejected your view, without admitting that they might have misunderstood you or miscategorized you. It's like 10x better, imo, to say "I think I understand your concern, but".

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Yeah it often feels phatic, or what people do when they are trying to appear like a good listener/balanced interlocutor when actually advocating strongly for their own point of view. (Have definitely either done this myself or said things in that same spirit).

What's better? Maybe just 'that makes sense'?

in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

It is simply a manipulation intended to protect the speaker's ego
This entry was edited (3 months ago)


What type of support feels most enjoyable/meaningful to give?

Sometimes friends ask how to support us. Realistically, there are a lot of helpful things people could do, if they wanted to. And this is kind of a long-term Situation we're going through.

Our main goal is just maintaining fun, mutually supportive relationships with people, despite being in a strange and isolating situation. So I think I wanna tailor my "things you could do for us" suggestions to be enjoyable!

in reply to kip

for me generally the most satisfying support I have given people is when they've explained something to me and I've understood it and I've noticed something about it that they find helpful, that they didn't notice without me. This kind of thing: benkuhn.net/listen/

I guess generally I think of my most important virtues as compassion + intelligence and opportunities to use them both together feel good

to respond to your list of ideas, the idea of doing medical research for someone stresses me out somewhat as I think I would not be good at it, but feel very strongly that it is important to be good at it; this is not unrelated to some unsolved / unaddressed problems in my own life (which I can't fix Right, so I can't fix them at all)

in reply to kip

My favorite way to support people is helping them figure something out, do research, make a plan, or work through internal blocks. These involve doing stuff that I'm good at.

My second-favorite category is support that involves doing things I'm not necessarily good at, like cooking, helping clean up, etc. When my own kids are a bit older I think babysitting will also fall into this category.

I'm mildly positive on support via hanging out. I don't really understand it (as in I don't experience support from something similar) but it feels like a fun, low effort way to help people.



Does anyone know of a laptop price index where I can check if it spiked today?



Many humans being powerless is a familiar situation, but we think like there's some law against every human being powerless. That changes if you introduce a new species with superior performance at everything.
in reply to Katja Grace

also changes if you introduce a species with superior performance at the right things, while still not (maybe even far from) everything


Midges




Anyone have recommendations for TV I should watch tonight? I'm most interested in strategy shows, e.g. if The Traitors were on Netflix that would be my top pick.


At its best, the local YMCA steam room is better than the one at Archimedes Banya - admittedly no eucalyptus scent, but bigger and hotter.
in reply to Daniel Filan

"at its best" because sometimes you go in and it's just not that steamy for some reason. Today I went and the lights didn't work but the steam was on full blast 👌


Back in the day people used to argue whether effective altruism was an opportunity or an obligation. It's just occurred to me that the opportunity side has links to theodicies that I find pretty implausible - "oh we're so lucky that there's so much pointless suffering in the world, so that we have the opportunity to do something about it".


man, dancing is great, I am glad the bay has so much of it

don't get to do it nearly as much now that I get up at 6am (for the child) but it's always worth it when I do



More AXRP! Joel Lehman!


Typically this podcast talks about how to avert destruction from AI. But what would it take to ensure AI promotes human flourishing as well as it can? Is alignment to individuals enough, and if not, where do we go form here? In this episode, I talk with Joel Lehman about these questions.

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xkcd.com/3039/ wow, for a minute there it sure looked like humans were going to break the speed of light some time in the 80s in order to keep getting higher up


Misty morning at Lanhydrock. Cornwall, England. NMP
From: https://x.com/HoganSOG/status/1882211656283111582/photo/1

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Junichiro Sekino 1914-1988
Night in Kyoto
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From: https://x.com/marysia_cc/status/1882215670282166390

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Transcription software creates a better record of what I say when I'm experiencing transcription software than is ideal


The daytime moon is pretty cool IMO. Somehow a more vivid reminder that we're floating in (hurtling thru?) space.
in reply to Daniel Filan

sometimes I look at it and I'm like, man, it would be REALLY bad if that fell down, but it doesn't, somehow


If I lie down and close my eyes, I often get right to sleep. However, doing so sounds dreadful: I want to live! There are a handful of kinds of living that actually make me sleepy though, and one of them is mathy puzzles you can do in your head. Anyone have good ones?
in reply to Katja Grace

curious for existing examples of the thing, both for guiding what responses I think are appropriate and also so I can try using them too :P


Tanaka Ryōhei (1933-2019)
Crow and Persimmon in the Snow

From: https://x.com/marysia_cc/status/1881097630148907230/photo/1

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Miscellaneous life updates




Adria on AXRP!


Yet another new episode!

Suppose we're worried about AIs engaging in long-term plans that they don't tell us about. If we were to peek inside their brains, what should we look for to check whether this was happening? In this episode Adrià Garriga-Alonso talks about his work trying to answer this question.

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in reply to Daniel Filan

Yesss got a lot of views on this one - I think I successfully managed to create a clickbait thumbnail.


6 days!


I'm probably starting my sixth day of feeling a lot more normal, health-wise. (Don't know for sure til later in the day.)

I might have returned to the level of health I was at in mid Dec — which was concerningly-bad at the time, but things got significantly worse after that.

While I'm feeling better, I'm trying to un-decondition my body a bit. Strategy: Walk a few minutes, get tired, and then put myself in a quiet/dark/controlled/alone environment to conduct Optimal Rest

in reply to kip

long may it continue! (or, dare we hope, improve still further :) )


I've been using a Kinesis Advantage 2 keyboard for a while, and I'm v fond of it, but one of the big drawbacks is that it's relatively bulky and difficult to transport. The newer model, the 360, seems like it would be easier, but it's kind of a lot of money to drop on something that only seems like it might solve a problem that I have. Curious if I know anyone who has one and wants to vouch for it. (Also curious for your views on whether I should get the Bluetooth one or cabled one -- my instinct would be the latter)
in reply to David Mears

the desire for portability is so that I can easily take it to and from work

I think for now I will try doing this with my existing keyboard but I suspect it will be annoying

in reply to Ben Millwood

Maybe i could give you my big keyboard that is the same as your big keyboard, so then you wouldn’t need to portable it around town (have one at work and one at home). I don’t use it. So you could have it for some token amount.


Meta has changed its policies, in some right-wing-y ways. Lots of people are disappointed. Could be a good time to try to get more people on Superstimulus?
in reply to kip

Maybe - I'm not currently using fb, so I'm not planning to do anything broad like that myself; also I'm not really following the things you're talking about beyond that they're maybe going to switch to a community notes style moderation scheme. I guess I saw some Zuckerberg quote about "masculine energy" or something?
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I'm not paying much attention to the changes either. But apparently one of the changes is that you're allowed to call people mentally ill if it's because they're trans? And someone I know is taking time off Facebook because of this. (I haven't fully factchecked if this is the right interpretation of the policy, but it does seem to be what the literal text is saying, and there are some articles reporting on it)
This entry was edited (4 months ago)


I've never heard of a financial advisor that will draw a rough curve of the client's utility as a function of money and then make investment recommendations on that basis -- which is pretty insane given how basic that should be. (I'm sure they sorta kinda do it implicitly but it's probably not very good)


A partial list of people whose art I've loved, and who I might have liked to be friends with, but who I think would not like me very much (all for different reasons):

  • Ursula K. LeGuin (I'm not MtG Green enough)
  • Ayn Rand (I'm too MtG Green)
  • Ezra Koenig (I'm too MtG Blue)

I'm not really sure how or why I generated this list. It feels related to the thing about wanting to get stronger, and deleting my facebook last month. It's kind of an "edge-y" question: I don't know how to emotionally deal with the existence of people in this category, but they go on existing.



Okay, where is the few-shot "reads literally all the article summaries from the whole internet and predicts how much I'd like them" service?
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I was starting to wonder where it was when GPT 3.5 came out, and now I'm really feeling like it's suspicious
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I also am really annoyed the "read all my notifications, alert me about the few important ones, and batch summarize the rest" service hasn't been built


An unfortunate thing for me is that I just viscerally really like LLMs, and would like them even more if they were way smarter.


OK this is probably a dumb question but why did we all decide that bio risk was the most scary thing AIs could do? Did someone write up a justification of that somewhere?
in reply to Daniel Filan

I think it's maybe the scariest thing if you only believe in misuse risk, and lots of people seem to only believe in misuse risk for some reason.
in reply to Daniel Filan

I think what we decided was more like: it might be the *first* way we get an actual catastrophe


in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

I feel like I'm living on the internet these days, since my health is too bad for in-person stuff. So it sucks that the internet is so much more aggro.

> My strategy so far in life has just been to avoid being the kind of person who attracts "sharp" / "angry" critics, and also to filter my social bubble to exclude them. But this doesn't scale if you're trying to do the things I'm trying to do.

What are you doing that is incompatible with filtering your social bubble?

in reply to kip

Mainly: Change what happens in the world on a pretty large scale, while not being Carl Shulman.
in reply to Ben Weinstein-Raun

Re: method "c": I'm wondering if you could intentionally give yourself exposure to critics in a way that's less vulnerable. The most obvious ways to do this might be too insincere for your taste, but idk, maybe there's still something you can do?

Like if I were trying to do this, I might create an anonymous account and intentionally share my most controversial (yet unimportant) thoughts/opinions, in places where some people will probably get mad at me. (Hopefully not in a way that, like, antagonizes people? I'd want it to be net good.) Then I'd try to lean into a mindset that getting criticism is a necessary/normal part of getting noticed.


in reply to Daniel Filan

sounds like it was intended as a joke; like, linking to "pleonastically" is an illustration of pleonasticism.


The raddest palindrome I have ever written


Rad! A ray, an otter, a man, a plan, a llama, snipes, a bat, a devil arisen (oh pox!); a sarong, a lug, a one-ton tub of unaksed-for pâté, bros, a POC prawn, a lioniser (ah, so ozone!); nets, ill Szymon (ox at an ER); wasps; a madam, a hard-won kiss (a 'snog'), a war, a call, a fret, a war (again!), a Niagara Waterfall, a car, a wagon's ass (I know, Dr.); a ham, a dam; asps, a wren, a taxonomy, ZSL (listen, Eno!) zoo; shares in oil, an warp cop, a sorbet; a Prof-desk, an UFO; but not, Eno, a gulag, nor a saxophone, sir; a live database; pins; a mall, an Alp, an amaretto - nay, a radar!


A mana pool, a ball... uh... a star, rats, a hullabaloo, panama


current progress on Bluesky OAuth login for my web app:

  • you give me your Bluesky handle
  • I have two methods of turning this into your DID, one via DNS and one via HTTP. I try both and use whichever works.
  • Now I have your DID, I need to go get your DID document. There's more than one type of DID, but so far I've only bothered to support one, which I just fetch from the directory.
  • Now I have your DID document, I can look up what your PDS is.
  • Now I have your PDS, I can ask it where the authorization servers are.
  • Now I've got an authorization server, I can ask it for the authorization server endpoints.
  • Now I think I can start the OAuth process?
  • It's not like the OAuth process is simple either

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